Small molecules and their impact in drug discovery: A perspective on the occasion of the 125th anniversary of the Bayer Chemical Research Laboratory.

The year 2021 marks the 125th anniversary of the Bayer Chemical Research Laboratory in Wuppertal, Germany. A significant number of prominent small-molecule drugs, from Aspirin to Xarelto, have emerged from this research site. In this review, we shed light on historic cornerstones of small-molecule drug research, discussing current and future trends in drug discovery as well as providing a personal outlook on the future of drug research with a focus on small molecules.

Patient and physician preferences for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infections: does the perspective matter?

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to identify and quantify the factors driving patient and physician preferences for treatments of genotype 1 hepatitis C virus infection in the UK. METHODS: A web survey was conducted, including 100 patients (50 treatment-naive and 50 treatment-experienced patients) and 50 physicians (gastroenterologists/ hepatologists and infectious disease specialists). A discrete-choice experiment was conducted to elicit the participants' preferences on the basis of seven attributes with four levels each: efficacy, that is probability of reaching sustained virologic response, treatment duration, treatment convenience (i.e. number of pills and/or injections), gastrointestinal problems, anaemia, dermatological problems and neuropsychological problems. The statistical analysis applied a mixed logit model to estimate preference weights and relative importance scores. RESULTS: Results indicated that the sustained virologic response rate was the most important attribute to participants. Physicians placed an even greater weight on the efficacy of treatments with a relative importance score of 9.33 [95% confidence interval: (6.93-11.91)], as compared with 6.16 [95% confidence interval: (4.34-8.15)] for patients. Neuropsychological problems ranked second for patients and physicians, and were more important to treatment-naive patients than to treatment-experienced patients or physicians. Gastrointestinal problems, anaemia and dermatological problems were of minor importance to all participants. These findings may be explained by the improvement in the management of physical adverse reactions over the last few years, thus making treatment easier to tolerate. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first conjoint analysis assessing and comparing the preferences of patients and physicians in hepatitis C virus.

Utility estimates for patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus after experiencing a myocardial infarction or stroke: a systematic review.

A systematic review identified studies eliciting utility decrements from myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and examined their use in economic models of new diabetes treatments. In 16 utility studies in patients with T2DM, utility decrements in the first year ranged from 0.017 to 0.226 for MI and from 0.034 to 0.590 for stroke. Sixteen of 19 economic evaluations of new treatments for T2DM included utility decrements for an MI and/or stroke from one of the 16 utility studies. Decrements for MI ranged from 0.012 to 0.180 in the first year. Decrements for stroke ranged from 0.044 to 0.690 in the first year. Utility studies in patients with T2DM provide little information about changes in utility decrements by time since the event and by disease severity. Cost-effectiveness studies do not always indicate how these values were used in the analysis.

Incremental costs associated with myocardial infarction and stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: an overview for economic modeling.

OBJECTIVE: To identify cost estimates related to myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) for use in economic models. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted. Electronic databases and conference abstracts were screened against inclusion criteria, which included studies performed in patients who had T2DM before experiencing an MI or stroke. Primary cost studies and economic models were included. Costs were converted to 2012 pounds sterling. RESULTS: Fifty-four studies were identified: 13 primary cost studies and 41 economic evaluations using secondary sources for complication costs. Primary studies provided costs from 10 countries. Estimates for a fatal event ranged from £2482-£5222 for MI and from £4900-£6694 for stroke. Costs for the year a non-fatal event occurred ranged from £5071-£29,249 for MI and from £5171-£38,732 for stroke. Annual follow-up costs ranged from £945-£1616 for an MI and from £4704-£12,926 for a stroke. Economic evaluations from 12 countries were identified, and costs of complications showed similar variability to the primary studies. DISCUSSION: The costs identified within primary studies varied between and within countries. Many studies used costs estimated in studies not specific to patients with T2DM. Data gaps included a detailed breakdown of resource use, which affected the ability to compare data across countries. CONCLUSIONS: In the development of economic models for patients with T2DM, the use of accurate estimates of costs associated with MI and stroke is important. When country-specific costs are not available, clear justification for the choice of estimates should be provided.

Modeling hard clinical end-point data in economic analyses.

OBJECTIVE: The availability of hard clinical end-point data, such as that on cardiovascular (CV) events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, is increasing, and as a result there is growing interest in using hard end-point data of this type in economic analyses. This study investigated published approaches for modeling hard end-points from clinical trials and evaluated their applicability in health economic models with different disease features. METHODS: A review of cost-effectiveness models of interventions in clinically significant therapeutic areas (CV diseases, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory diseases) was conducted in PubMed and Embase using a defined search strategy. Only studies integrating hard end-point data from randomized clinical trials were considered. For each study included, clinical input characteristics and modeling approach were summarized and evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 33 articles (23 CV, eight cancer, two respiratory) were accepted for detailed analysis. Decision trees, Markov models, discrete event simulations, and hybrids were used. Event rates were incorporated either as constant rates, time-dependent risks, or risk equations based on patient characteristics. Risks dependent on time and/or patient characteristics were used where major event rates were >1%/year in models with fewer health states (<7). Models of infrequent events or with numerous health states generally preferred constant event rates. LIMITATIONS: The detailed modeling information and terminology varied, sometimes requiring interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: Key considerations for cost-effectiveness models incorporating hard end-point data include the frequency and characteristics of the relevant clinical events and how the trial data is reported. When event risk is low, simplification of both the model structure and event rate modeling is recommended. When event risk is common, such as in high risk populations, more detailed modeling approaches, including individual simulations or explicitly time-dependent event rates, are more appropriate to accurately reflect the trial data.

Health technology assessment and its role in the future development of the Indian healthcare sector.

Public expenditure on healthcare in India is low by international comparison, and access to essential treatment pushes many uninsured citizens below the poverty line. In many countries, policymakers utilize health technology assessment (HTA) methodologies to direct investments in healthcare, to obtain the maximum benefit for the population as a whole. With rising incomes and a commitment from the Government of India to increase the proportion of gross domestic product spent on health, this is an opportune moment to consider how HTA might help to allocate healthcare spending in India, in an equitable and efficient manner. Despite the predominance of out-of-pocket payments in the Indian healthcare sector, payers of all types are increasingly demanding value for money from expenditure on healthcare. In this review we demonstrate how HTA can be used to inform several aspects of healthcare provision. Areas in which HTA could be applied in the Indian context include, drug pricing, development of clinical practice guidelines, and prioritizing interventions that represent the greatest value within a limited budget. To illustrate the potential benefits of using the HTA approach, we present an example from a mature HTA market (Canada) that demonstrates how a new treatment for patients with atrial fibrillation - although more expensive than the current standard of care - improves clinical outcomes and represents a cost-effective use of public health resources. If aligned with the prevailing cultural and ethical considerations, and with the necessary investment in expert staff and resources, HTA promises to be a valuable tool for development of the Indian healthcare sector.

Quality of INR control and outcomes following venous thromboembolism.

INTRODUCTION: The objective of this study was to evaluate the pattern of anticoagulation after venous thromboembolism (VTE) in actual clinical practice. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This study used the General Practice Research Database. Individuals aged 18+ years with VTE were matched to 3 controls. RESULTS: Of the 46 335 patients with VTE and 138 024 controls, 70.2% of cases and 86.6% of controls had no obvious risk factors. The mortality risk was increased substantially around the time of diagnosis (relative hazard rate [RR] around 21) but remained elevated for a further 4 years (RRs around 1.5-2.0). The mean percentage of time spent within the therapeutic range for international normalized ratio (INR) was 57.0%. The lowest rate of VTE recurrence occurred in patients with ≥70% time spent within therapeutic range (RR of 0.50, 95% CI 0.39-0.63 compared to <30%). CONCLUSIONS: Higher time spent within therapeutic INR range was associated with lower risks of VTE recurrence and death due to VTE.

Treatment of venous thromboembolism - effects of different therapeutic strategies on bleeding and recurrence rates and considerations for future anticoagulant management.

Effective treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE) strikes a balance between prevention of recurrence and bleeding complications. The current standard of care is heparin followed by a vitamin K antagonist such as warfarin. However, this option is not without its limitations, as the anticoagulant effect of warfarin is associated with high inter- and intra-patient variability and patients must be regularly monitored to ensure that anticoagulation is within the narrow target therapeutic range. Several novel oral anticoagulant agents are in the advanced stages of development for VTE treatment, some of which are given after an initial period of heparin treatment, in line with current practice, while others switch from high to low doses after the initial phase of treatment. In this review we assess the critical considerations for treating VTE in light of emerging clinical data for new oral agents and discuss the merits of novel treatment regimens for patients who have experienced an episode of deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism.

Cost-effectiveness of immunosuppressive regimens in renal transplant recipients in Germany: a model approach.

BACKGROUND: The choice of immunosuppression regimen is of paramount importance for outcomes and cost of renal transplantation. We compared the cost-effectiveness of triple immunosuppressive regimens in Germany. METHODS: A strong micro-simulation model was built comparing regimens based on cyclosporine, everolimus, sirolimus, and tacrolimus. Mean cost per patient, incremental cost per life year gained, and incremental cost per additional year with functioning graft were assessed from the perspective of the German statutory health insurance (SHI) after 2 and 10 years. RESULTS: Over the 2-year period, the model predicted mean total costs per patient of 26,732, 29,352, 33,415, and 49,978 euro for sirolimus, cyclosporine, everolimus, and tacrolimus, respectively. Focusing on the cost per life year gained, the sirolimus-based regimen compared favorably with those based on everolimus and tacrolimus. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of cyclosporine versus sirolimus is 524,000 euro per life year gained. Regarding the cost per year with functioning graft gained, sirolimus dominated cyclosporine and everolimus, while the ICER for tacrolimus compared to sirolimus amounts to 1,788,154 euro. Over the 10-year time frame, mean total costs per patient were 100,758, 108,300, 120,316, and 183,802 euro for sirolimus, cyclosporine, everolimus, and tacrolimus, respectively. With regard to life years gained, sirolimus dominated both cyclosporine and everolimus. The ICER of tacrolimus versus sirolimus was 1,766,894 euro. Considering the years with functioning graft gained, sirolimus dominated cyclosporine and everolimus, while the ICER for tacrolimus compared to sirolimus amounted to 1,339,419 euro. CONCLUSIONS: Over both the 2-year and the 10-year time horizon, sirolimus-based immunosuppression represents a cost-effective option in renal transplantation in Germany.

Cost-effectiveness of strong opioids focussing on the long-term effects of opioid-related fractures: a model approach.

Opioid analgesics are known to impact on the central nervous system (CNS). These CNS side effects, such as dizziness and confusion, have been shown to lead to an increased risk of falling with subsequent fractures in elderly patients being treated with opioids. The risk of experiencing fractures has been shown to be dependent on the substance administered. Therefore, a health economic model was developed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of the most commonly used strong opioids in Germany, focussing on opioid-related fractures. By means of a Markov model, the consequences of hip, spine and forearm fractures due to the prior administration of transdermal (TD) buprenorphine, TD fentanyl, oral oxycodone as well as oral morphine were assessed from the perspectives of the German statutory health insurance (SHI) and the German social security (GSS) system over a time horizon of 6 years. The most frequently prescribed strength/package-size combinations of these opioids were taken into consideration, including generics where available. The results of the present analysis predict that TD buprenorphine is dominant compared to TD fentanyl and oxycodone by showing better effects [life years gained/quality adjusted life years (QALY) gained] at lower cost. From the SHI perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) compared to morphine is 6,801.61 per life year gained, and 7,766.11 per QALY gained. From the GSS perspective, the ICER is 2,496.77 per life year gained and 2,850.83 per QALY gained. The model is robust regarding probabilistic variations of all parameters in the sensitivity analyses. Focussing on fractures due to the prior administration of strong opioids, TD buprenorphine is less costly and more effective than TD fentanyl and oxycodone and represents a cost-effective treatment option versus morphine in patients with chronic pain from both the SHI and GSS perspective in Germany.